The Coming Energy Crisis
Posted on Friday 11 September 2020, 22:18 - Energy Crisis - Permalink
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Planes and boats navigate by satellite; they use satellite transmission to determine position. Prior to high altitude flight’s use of computers, satellite references and electronic navigation systems, compass orientation was used. Magnetic north and south, the focal points of Earth’s magnetic field, were steady in their position. The compass was small enough to detect the flux or flow lines of magnetism and point towards magnetic poles. These points have been sufficiently close to true north and south – the axis points of Earth’s rotation, where no rotation occurs, just a turning in place like the center of a vinyl record (remember those?) such that their use proved satisfactory.
The physical changes now beginning a new cycle on Earth – Mt. Etna in Italy, the Popocatepetl in Mexico, the soon to occur massive earthquake in Los Angeles – are Earth’s experience in the effects sweeping the galaxy.
Our sun will shortly begin to behave in a way not understood; the permutations will feed into many effects on Earth. The magnetosphere – the magnetic field that protects Earth from solar wind – will be compromised by effects from massive CME events (coronal mass ejections). Combined with earthquakes, these effects will cause Earth’s rotation on its axis to wobble. The effect will be too small to be felt on Earth’s surface by mankind but the wobble or precession, to use a scientific term, will cause magnetic north to wander erratically. Recall that a fair portion of the Earth is molten iron; as surface disturbances such as earthquakes shake the globe - yes, some will reach this intensity - they will cause the current axis to shake in place much as the ends of a pencil held in the middle and twisted will move and wander. Attempts to adjust will not work over time, despite serving as a temporary fix. Satellite to earth transmissions will become impossible under the type and amount of solar radiation that will reach through the current magnetosphere - Earth's magnetic field - to disturb satellite signals.
The effect will be to render air travel almost impossible, as navigation of jets at 30,000 ft / 9,150m altitude and 550mph/ 890kph will not be possible without satellite information. Winds at different altitudes up to cruise can throw a jet far off course. Without reliable compass headings, satellite references and visual ground reference, as would occur over clouds and/or oceans, jets could stray dangerously – even fatally – off course.
Ship travel, which also relies upon satellite navigation, will be likewise affected. Unlike high speed, high altitude aircraft’s dependence on technology, ships can navigate by stars but require a low or cloud free night sky. During the day, skies also need be clear enough to see the sun. Even following compass headings will become difficult and thus ship movement will become slow and uneconomic; adding the ultra high cost of fuel to far slower progress will further reduce it.
Prepare for a time with few planes or boats in operation.
The force of movement, the power of push, the motivation that shifts are all things we collectively refer to as "energy". It's the power or force to move things. Early human history recognized a few ways to do it. Through the millennia of known human history (there are few lost volumes of this encyclopedia I predict will soon be found) until today, we've learned to burn, rotate and agitate to create force. We harness the water and wind; we set off nuclear reactions and we extract gas and oil from deep underground to burn; we remove lignite from just below the surface; coal from mines below that.
Most prolific of all sources and uses of energy is crude oil; it's used as fuel and to manufacture rubber and plastics. The entire international economy of trade is based on it. We use it to fly and to generate electricity; humanity could not function as it does today without it.
A world where fuel from crude oil nearly disappears would fundamentally change; nearly everything directly and indirectly involved with its use would be affected. What would humanity do faced with the practical disappearance of crude oil and its products?
We will find out.
Here's what's coming:
The price of crude oil will skyrocket; the price shock will come without warning. The price will retreat, only to be shocked once more, to retreat again. The trend will be ever upwards. Air travel will collapse as fares rise right along with fuel prices. Passenger traffic will fall drastically and before long, there will not be enough revenue to cover basic fixed costs such as aircraft and minimum staff. Automobile use will also fall sharply, as fuel prices rise to where even essential use is forced back. Several large automakers will go under. The ability to move crude oil from continent to continent will disappear and as ocean shipping and air travel are eliminated, international trade will plummet to a trickle of today's activity and remain there. Falling industrial output will cut demand for electricity; the generation levels of today will not be necessary.
What will fill the gap?
A new way to generate electricity will be rediscovered; it will use no fuel and produce no emissions. Beyond the cost of the devices, the only additional cost will be distribution. Current infrastructure can be easily adapted to it. It will be generated locally, in other words, close to its users. It will be used to cool, heat and to power transportation. Electric vehicles of today, which are charged with electricity generated from fuel, will become accepted as reliable, on demand transportation. Recharging stations will be able to be located sufficiently close to one another to allow long distance travel. Urban range and performance will be even better than we enjoy today.
Why aren't we already doing this?
"We" don't know how. The number of people in this "We" group will increase, to say the least. The scarcity of fuel, which will be at least three times as expensive as today and possibly quadruple current costs, will provide the impetus to adopt and expand this new method.