The Earth Shift

So, you have a strong sense of the fragility of many aspects of life at present: all the issues to do with energy availability and price, and all of the talk around shortages which you hear in the news bulletins 

Of course, nobody is aware at this moment in time, that just around the corner are the severe upheavals which we’ve been talking about with you for years. These will come out of the blue. We’re not going to dwell on the cause of the first ‘oil shock’ as it has been explained elsewhere, suffice to say it will come as a great surprise; it will be a case of many nations pressing the so-called ‘panic button‘ and there will be a very unruly and unpleasant scramble to secure sufficient supplies of, in this case, oil 

This will be the complete opposite of what actually needs to happen, in that this will demonstrate that competition is still seen as the best way of solving these sorts of global problems, whereas we would maintain that the key lesson here, and in fact one of the key lessons mankind now has to learn, is that global co-operation is key

It may have been the case a few hundred years ago, that to scramble around and compete in this way for resources would have given you some sort of advantage. However the world is now such a small place and the interdependence between nations is such that to continue to compete on this basis for resources, energy and so on, is really self-defeating

In order for the economies of countries to thrive, and the global economy to thrive, it’s important that everyone gets a share of materials, resources, energy and so on. Without this some economies will be unable to survive, and the goods and services, which are either produced or consumed, will suffer

So, for the highly developed nations to attempt to grab and use strong-arm tactics to secure what they believe they need in order to survive, is very short-sighted. In order for economies to survive the whole system needs to survive, but it will need to do so on a very different footing

So, the message we are trying to get across here is that it will become obvious that it’s important for everybody to be able to secure at least a part of what they need in order to continue. Otherwise the interdependence, which is now built-in to the system, will cause problems across the board

Nobody is going to be able to operate in isolation, and that’s a key message here

So we would say that the lesson, which has yet to be learned, but which is of paramount importance, is that when these severe shortages and difficulties arise, nations need to consult with each other; they need to sit and agree a workable system whereby even the poorest nations are able to secure a sensible proportion of materials, resources, energy and so on   

It will be in no-one’s interest for nations to fail due to what is just around the corner; it’s in everyone’s interest to co-operate and ensure that even the smallest and weakest are given a lifeline, and of course this all needs to be in proportion. So, that’s the message for today

The key is going to be co-operation, between countries, between companies, between people - it’s absolutely essential. The nature of the global economy is going to be changed fundamentally. This can be accommodated; it will be a painful process for all sorts of reasons

The ‘consumption based model’ on which you’re currently operating will be dismantled and replaced. Of course there will still be consumption, but it will be at nothing like the level you see around the world today. It cannot continue