The Earth Shift

Russia & Ukraine: 24 February 2022  

The 20th and the 22nd of February have come and gone.

2+2+2+2+2  =10 1+0=1
2+2+2+2+2+2=12 1+2=3  

The world now knows about events in Ukraine and Russia over the 3 days in question. As simple as 1, 2, 3….. The big events the series of 2's suggested, have happened.  

Today's news is dominated by the Russian attack on Ukraine. Here are my questions to The HS.  

Q: When asked about war you said ... "You mean to ask if bullets and bombs will fly between Russian and Ukrainian military forces, after an invasion and occupation of Ukraine by Russia. No, this will not happen.”. But invasion did happen and bullets and bombs are flying.

HS: You forget to mention what we added after the reply. That there is a catch. Read it again. Obviously after an invasion and occupation of Ukraine by Russia, bullets and bombs won't fly because the war will stop after that. We also indicated by that reply that invasion and occupation would happen. You didn't get that, did you? People are accustomed to interpreting in a way they have been trained to. 

Q: President Trump made the comment that Russia was sly, crafty and smart with its strategy, political observers critical saying Trump supports Putin. Why is this appearing in the news?

Hs: Trump is running for president again and makes these comments for this purpose. The press asks and reports on the reply in pursuit of ratings. This is a sideshow or a distraction to the issue, since the former US President does not control the USA's government reaction.  

Q: Why is Putin doing this? Why is the Russian Federal Assembly going along with it?  

HS: The Assembly cannot prevent it or stop it now. A law can be passed but it would not be retroactively effective, and this is very unlikely anway. Putin and his government are increasing the size of Russia significantly, a look at the population and economic figures for both nations reveals the effect.  

Q: The price of crude oil has already shot up rapidly; will it continue to climb?

HS: Yes, however the height or level to which it rises shall depend upon the duration of military conflict.  

Q: What are European nations going to do about this, besides speak?

HS: Attempt to apply economic sanctions.  

Q: Ukraine is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) so an obligation to defend Ukraine has not been agreed. Will individual nations attempt to intervene and stop the invasion?

HS: No.  

Q: The Russian President has promised consequences unseen for any nation which interferes. On the surface this seems like a tremendously confident swipe at the USA; whether the USA would stop Russian military action is one matter, but to say the USA would face consequences is quite another matter.

HS: Putin has said this for several effects; he knows the USA will not intervene with military force. The statement makes him appear strong and confident to the Russian citizenry, in addition to his actions. Mr. Putin was already seen this way and will now appear invincible. The second reason he has said this is to lessen economic sanction attempts by European nations. The third reason is to create worry and instability in financial and commodities markets, which will increase prices of Russian crude oil and gas, more than eliminating negative effects lower exchange rates for Russian money.  

Q: Have the Russians explored all the possible effects, probabilities of such effects and does Russia have a plan and strategy to defend against the negative effects and take advantage of the good ones?

HS: Yes.    

Q: Is Russia's plan intended to convert all of Ukraine into a new set of Russian Oblasts?  

HS: Yes.  

Q: How long will the military conflict last?

HS: Until the Ukraine forces capitulate.  

Q: Is there any possibility Ukraine forces will effectively resist Russian military power?

HS: Nearly zero.  

Q: Was Russia truly deterred from doing this while Donald Trump was in office?

HS: Yes. The plan has been in the works for years. Russia waited out Donald Trump, knowing he would certainly leave office in human year 2025. His removal in 2020 simply advanced the Russian schedule.  

Q: Was Trump ever going to put US military forces in Ukraine?

HS: No. Trump's strategy for deterrence was to injure Russian economic interests if aggression occurred. Trump's plan and achievement of low energy prices and a good economy for the USA made Russian efforts much more expensive. The fear of economic sanctions was the true deterrence.  

Q: What would Trump have done to sanction Russia?

HS: Cut off diplomatic relations, eject Russian diplomates, close Russian diplomacy missions, embargo Russian government assets, embargo Russian company assets, freeze assets and otherwise sanction any nation and companies of that nation which also refused to do the same. Trump would have stood ready to supplement the shortfall in Russian energy and gas sent to Europe if this would become necessary. This would not have been needed, because Russia cannot afford a significant reduction in energy exports.  

Q: What is going to happen now with Russian oil & gas?

HS: If European nations attempt to apply stiff sanctions, Russia will reduce or temporarily shut off natural gas delivery. The European nations will blink before Russia will.  

Q: Is the increase in energy prices part of the Russian strategy?

HS: It is the principal objective. Russia intends to make Europe that much more dependent on its energy, over the long term.  

Q: Is this event the first of several "oil shocks" predicted on these pages?

HS: Yes.  

Q: Does US President Biden's previous dealings with Ukraine, and the scandal involving his son, now compromise the USA's position?

HS: No, because the USA's strategic interests do not rely upon Ukraine, it is neither supplier nor consumer of USA products and services in a meaningful way. The US President is heavily compromised; Russia has significant evidence it will threaten to release if the current USA administration does anything besides speak or apply minor sanctions. The vigorous pursuit of the former US President as a Russian agent was a massive gift to Russia. First it allowed the Russians to justifiably react as being offended when the accusations ended in nothing. In practice the Russians do not care much about this and they are not offended by internal political maneuvers of the USA if their name is thrown around.   Russia has managed to compromise several prominent US political leaders, all Democrats. If materially significant sanctions are now applied by the USA, such as what the Trump government would have likely done, the Russians will disclose it. The Democrats will be unable to rig an election in their favor to reverse the effects such a scandal would create.  Russia has made this clear to American interests. The USA president is too feeble to act, his key administration ministers are also under the control of the same interests which throttle the USA's president and vice president.    

Q: Russia is going to change names in Ukraine or anything like that?

HS: No need; the provinces which are culturally and linguistically Russian will retain their names but become Russian Oblasts. The remainder of Ukraine will simply become controlled by Russia as if it were Russian territory, but with one major advantage for Russia; Ukraine will not be represented in the Russian Federal Assembly and have no voice. The Ukrainian equivalent will remain but will have no authority outside laws and other matters which match the Russian rules already in effect. Changes which affect Russian rules will require Russian Assembly approval which means they will not be adopted. The Ukrainian president will be a figurehead.  

Q: Ukraine will become Belarus, effectively?

HS: Yes.  

Q: Will Russian military forces be placed in Ukraine permanently?

HS: Yes.  

Q: The Latin phrase, Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum (For peace prepare for war) seems to be once again renewed. Why did Ukraine not prepare for this?

HS: Ukraine could have never matched Russian military strength, even if the citizenry were starved to pay for it.  

Q: How are the Russian people going to react in general?

HS: Acceptance to indifference will be the principal reaction. Some Russian citizens will be proud, some angry to even furious but Vladimir Putin's political image will improve as a result. Russia grows again, even if temporarily.  

Q. What next for Russia?

HS: Russia is considering several annexations; the choice to annex, then which territory to seize, will be made after the Ukraine situation is settled.

Q. What is China planning to do? Is Taiwan next?

HS: China has been considering annexation of Taiwan for some time and will continue to consider it independently of what evolves between Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the USA. China will closely examine what happens with the USA, for signs of perceived weakness. China is far more dependent on exports to the USA and could be hurt badly by USA economic sanctions, much more than Russia.